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What is luck? Do some people have more of it than others? If they do, where do they get it?

The new Harry Potter film is tremendous - no matter what the reviews say. I can’t say what it would be like if you weren’t a massive fan who’d read all the books several times, but I enjoyed it.

The film features one of J. K. Rowling’s best creations: “liquid luck”, or felix felicis. This potion gives anyone who drinks it good fortune for a short period. Harry wins a small vial in a contest and takes it in order to convince Professor Horace Slughorn to give up a memory. You can see the results in this bootleg. It looks very much like confidence.

In another scene, Harry pretends to slip some felix felicis in Ron’s drink, to boost his morale before an important Quidditch match. Ron plays perfectly, embued with near-magical powers by his mental state:

The link between luck and confidence is made explicit elsewhere. Taking too much of the potion, we are told in the book, can cause giddiness, recklessness and overconfidence. When Harry does have a sip, Rowling writes:

Slowly but surely, an exhilarating sense of infinite opportunity stole through him; he felt as though he could have done anything, anything at all … Harry got to his feet, smiling, brimful of confidence.

Chance, by definition, is what we cannot control. But luck is not wholly implacable. A little observation of our lives tells us that some people attract more of it than others.

In his book The Luck Factor the psychologist Richard Wiseman describes the behavioural habits “scientifically proven to help you attract good fortune”. Lucky people are “social magnets”, he says, who build “networks of luck”. They have a relaxed attitude towards life. They are open to new experiences. Lucky people listen to their hunches and gut feelings, and they anticipate good fortune in the future. They expect their interactions with others to be successful.

Wiseman erroneously gives a list of actions, instead of the disposition they spring from. But he is correct to say that Fortune has likes and dislikes. Above all, she is attracted to confidence.

The idea that Fortune cannot be influenced comes from Christian philosophy. Ever since the Christian philosopher Boethius first called Fortune the sightless goddess in the sixth century AD, people have liked to imagine that she is thoughtless and indiscriminate in the bestowal of her gifts. In Titian’s painting, Fortune is symbolised by the wheel, turning inexorably, careless of who it crushes.

Classical philosophers saw more clearly. Luck is not blind. As the Roman historian Livy recognised, she prefers certain individuals.

Livy gave us the phrase “Fortune favours the brave”. Courage, however, is not so valuable for us. In our time, Fortune prefers the confident.

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