I’ve argued before that confidence inevitably leads to overconfidence. A new hypothesis suggests that it may just as inevitably lead to depression. Randolph Nesse, a psychologist and researcher in evolutionary medicine, suggests that, just as pain stops you pursuing harmful physical courses of action, so low mood stops you pursuing damaging mental ones. In particular, he says, it stops you chasing after unreachable goals.
If The Economist is to believed, this theory is backed up by the evidence. It describes a study by social psychologists Carsten Wrosch and Gregory Miller:
Their conclusion was that those who experienced mild depressive symptoms could, indeed, disengage more easily from unreachable goals … the new study also found a remarkable corollary: those women who could disengage from the unattainable proved less likely to suffer more serious depression in the long run.
Persistence, though necessary for success and considered a virtue by many, can also have a negative impact on health … Depression may turn out to be an inevitable price of living in a dynamic society.
The same point can be made about confidence. Confidence encourages persistence, because it encourages you to believe in yourself and your abilities. Is depression – like overconfidence – part of the price we pay for our need for self-belief?
There is also a deeper story here, one that Nesse understands more fully than The Economist. In his talk (video) earlier this year, Nesse said (23.00 onwards):
I do look forward to the day when a patient comes to me and says “Dr. Nesse, I have a serious problem: I don’t have enough anxiety. It’s deficient, I know it’s wrecking my life, I’m getting arrested, I’m losing jobs, I can’t stay in a marriage, I know it’s a problem, I don’t have enough anxiety – do you have any good drugs for me?” I’m not sure this will ever become a big business, but I wish we would think about these things in this way.
I’m not sure if I would want this to be a big business, but I agree: it would be better if we thought about things this way. Part of the problem, it seems to me, lies in our estimation of virtue. Think about it this way: has anyone ever said to you that it’s possible to be too good? Or too happy? Or too heroic? Or too confident? We recognise and warn against overconfidence, of course, but is this the same thing? Often, it seems to me, overconfidence is defined more as having the wrong sort of confidence than it is having too much of it.
What is the difference between confidence and overconfidence? Or confidence and arrogance? Let me know your thoughts.
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